How the predictor works
The predictor compares your MHT-CET state merit number with published historical closing merit numbers from the CET Cell's CAP cut-off lists. It does not estimate future cutoffs and it never shows a percentage chance — the labels describe what happened in past counselling, under the rules below (rule set v1).
The data
The current dataset (version 3) is parsed from the official CAP cut-off lists published by the State Common Entrance Test Cell, Maharashtra (Maharashtra State & Minority seats, CAP Rounds I–IV). It holds 72,446 seat options. Of 2,81,638 closing ranks imported from the source data, 2,78,714 are in use (the rest were excluded because they failed reconciliation); reconciliation used — individual allotment records. A closing rank for a round is the highest rank still holding that seat (college × course × quota × category) after the round; the number in brackets is the number of seats allotted in that round.
- Each cut-off is the closing merit number (with its percentile) printed by the CET Cell for one choice code, quota section (Home University, Other than Home University, State Level, Minority) and seat type (for example GOPENS, LOBCH, TFWS) in one CAP round. Every value can be traced to its page in the official PDF.
- Where the CET Cell printed several stages for the same seat type in a round, the Stage I value is used; other stages are used only when no Stage I value exists.
- The CET Cell does not publish per-candidate allotment lists, so cut-offs are not reconciled against allotments; every result is marked “Not cross-checked”.
- If you enter a percentile instead of a merit number, your merit number is estimated from published (merit number, percentile) pairs of the latest year's cut-off lists. Use your official merit number once the merit list is out.
- Missing years and rounds are shown as unavailable. Nothing is estimated or filled in.
- Fees are the Fee Regulating Authority (FRA) Maharashtra approved fees for the year shown, where the FRA institute could be matched to the CET Cell institute code.
Reconciliation by counselling, year and rank system (1 sheets)
Share of closing ranks that equal the highest allotted rank in that counselling's allotment list for the same seat, round and year — from the import log of dataset v3.
| Counselling | Rank system | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maharashtra CAP (MHT-CET) — State & Minority seats | AIR | No allotment list | No allotment list | No allotment list |
Like-for-like comparison
- Your MHT-CET merit number is compared only with closing merit numbers of the same seat type, quota section and CAP round.
- Each option is compared within its own counselling scheme, quota, seat category and round.
- By default your rank is compared with Round 1 cutoffs — the round you fill choices for first. You can switch to Round 2, Round 3 or the final round of each year.
Eligibility comes first
Seat categories and quotas are specific to each counselling authority (for example, a state's backward-class groups are not the same as the central OBC list). Domicile, PwD, women, service, NRI, minority, institutional and special-reservation conditions are applied before anything is labelled. Seats whose category or quota rule is not yet verified against the authority's information bulletin are hidden by default — the results page says how many were hidden and lets you include them, marked “eligibility unverified”. Restricted seats (NRI, minority, institutional, PwD, in-service) appear only if you declare that eligibility.
The labels
- Safe Bet Your rank was inside the cutoff in every comparable year, at most 80% of the toughest year's cutoff, with at least 2 years of history.
- Good Chance Inside every comparable cutoff, but with a thinner margin or too little history for Safe Bet. A “close call” tag appears when the cushion is under 500 ranks.
- Toss-up Inside the cutoff in some comparable years and outside it in others.
- Opens Later Outside the selected round's cutoff, but a later round of the same year reached your rank.
- Long Shot Outside every comparable cutoff, but within 5% of the most permissive one.
- Historically Unlikely Well beyond every comparable cutoff.
- Insufficient History No comparable cutoff was published.
Cards also flag cutoffs set by a single seat (they can swing sharply between years), records with open data-quality flags, and cutoffs that moved more than 10% between the first and latest year.
What the labels are not
- They are not probabilities and have not been statistically calibrated.
- They do not mean a seat exists or is vacant this year — seat matrices change.
- They are not a substitute for the official counselling information bulletin.
Questions about a specific record? Tell us — every correction is reviewed and logged with its source.